here is a website [http://trekme.com/] which allows one to track a trek. great use of technology. check out the JUNK project in the middle of the pacific.
August 2008 Archives
http://vimeo.com/1526981
check it out and let me know what you think!
Service Industry. accounts for 85% of GDP of USA, average of 70% of GDP of other OCED countries. classical Agricultural, Industry, Services. another way to look at this is as follows: Extractive, Transformative, Producer , Personal, Distributive, Non-marketed. roadmaps of 13 sectors have been completed. questions focused on - state of art, drivers, long-term outlook.
1. Health Care is the second largest service sector in the world. it is over 15% of GDP in the US, average of 9% of GDP in other OCED. one of the greatest growth areas will be ICT in the health sector, especially around proactive fitness and wellness.
2. Construction Industry.
3. Technology Industry. focus is really on transitioning the machine groups to service groups.
service systems are quite complex and interdisciplinary requiring T-shaped skills
1. Business - propose (win-win), Finance, Market, Manage, plus eServices & eMarkets
2. Social-Organizational - Coordinate, motivate, govern, learn, plus eServices & eMarkets
3. technology - make, verify, deliver, operate, plus eServices & eMarkets
[notes attributed to Jim Spohrer]
there are a few things that are great about an office door. one of those is that it can represent various states by its position. it can be anything from wide open, indicating to anyone that they are free to enter, to closed shut, stay out. then depending on the degree to which it is open one can interpret the degree of readiness for the occupier to be 'disturbed'.
we need the same thing in the digital world. one could argue that it is entirely up to the individual to turn on their devices or not. but it extends far beyond that. email. we need the virtual office door for email. filters are supposed to do this to some extent. but that really does not work. and if we have a team which is distributed around the world, or lets say at least in the same time zone, wouldn't it be great if we could have a virtual office door to gauge the colleagues 'readiness' for interaction?
i would love one. it would be a tremendous help.
travel in russia is a challenge. you cant read a thing and most folks simply do not speak english. result of many years of deep animosity, i suppose. the hotel is fine. the neighborhood seems tired. but then again, most of the city that we saw on the ride in seemed tired. i am on the third floor. there is an interior atrium that begins on the third floor. when checking in i was told very nicely that i had been upgraded to a 'family room'. i smiled and said thanks with visions of a room in which a family of four could hang out. the room is simply the 'wheelchair accessible' room. As with so many others of similar ilk that i have stayed in, it is so poorply deisgned that i get really annoyed. there are no surfaces to put anything in the bathroom. if one is in a wheelchair, or similar disability, does this then mean that you no longer need to put a toothbrush or kit anywhere? no light at the desk and the electric outlets are all a crawl away. and this is a new hotel. hmmm. Room 301.
from a friend in New York....you have to read this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/10/opinion/10friedman1.html?_r=1&em&oref=slogin
presentation by the Global Footprint Network on the method.
steve goldfinger. one of the founders of the network.
he points out that they are an accounting group, not advocacy. it is not predictive, rather historical. they stay away from ethics as a company.
/Steven Goldfinger, Ph.D., Senior Scientist
Steve manages many of the projects at Global Footprint Network, builds coalitions to develop new applications of the Footprint, provides strategic direction for the organization and provides internal quality assurance. Steve helped establish the Natural Step US, an NGO focusing on socio-ecological sustainability, and served as its Director of Education. He has also worked with Second Nature, an NGO promoting environmental literacy and the greening of operations in higher education, where he co-authored recommendations to the President's Council on Sustainable Development on the incorporation of sustainability principles and practices in higher education. Steve’s doctorate in psychology at Cornell University emphasized an ecological approach to perception and cognition./
steven schneider - climate scientist - we are going to overshoot no matter what we do now. WE MUST BE CONSIDERING ADAPTATION FAR MORE THAN ANYONE WANTS TO ADMIT.
Saul Griffith
how much power do i use?
an average american has as 12,000 watt lifestyle
he has looked at his entire life at WATTS.
we need a NOBEL prize for energy auditing.
humanity uses 18 TW of energy.
the influence of carbonic acid in the air pon the temperature of the ground. the first article in april on climate in 1896......get it.
oceans have 40 000 GtC.
busniess as usual - 800
stern report - 550
he wants 450
we are at 385
jim hansen 350
pre industrial 290 ppm
the best story line seems so show that if the entire world 'goes california' we still have a 2 degree increase in temperature. this will mean that we will see entire cities and countries lost to sea level change. 20-50% of species will be lost...... this is the BEST case!
so. how do we stabilize at 450ppm? we can only put 2GT into the atmosphere per annum. this really means only 2-3 TW from carbon fuels which is much less than the 16 we use now. THUS we need 12.5 TW from a new energy source. the only four available are solar, gravity, heat, nuclear.
renewables are really a power density problem.
2033 power mix.....carbon free
nuclear 3 - i 3 GW nuclear plant every week for the next 25 years
geothermal 2 - 3 100 MW steam turbines every day for the next 25
wid 2
solar 2 - 100 m2 of solar cells at 15% efficiency for the next 25 years
biofules 0.5 - i olympic size pool of algae every day for the next 25 years
a realisic limit case for solar is....
eat less
eat more healthily
exercise more
spend more time with family
live closer together
less time commuting
less business travel
have higher quality better designe products
two equations govern our lives -
power equation. the factors of the equation tell us that we MUST be going slower. personal transportation meeds to look like an electric scooter, not an SUV. we need factors of 10 improvemnts, not factors of two
heat equation is the other one.
Probably the BEST presentation i have seen on climate change and energy EVER.
Ed Lu, astronaut, B612 Foundation [http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/Bios/htmlbios/lu.html]
two new telescopes will be coming on line next year. this will provide 100 times more potential to observe and track asteroids. it seems that there is a good chance that we will be hit by a big asteroid, one that is about 1km in diameter, within the next 15 years. see [http://space.newscientist.com/article/dn9257-rubbly-itokawa-revealed-as-impossible-asteroid.html].
there are two types to be concerned about. one is the 'virgin' newtonian path and the other is the keyhole path.
what are the options?
1. explosion to cahnge the delta V. a few years ago we actually shot a comet in space. 'Deep Impact on Comet Tempel 1' [http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/main/index.html].
2. Gravitational Traction. hover a space station to tow the asteroid. gravity is the towline.
the Deflection Campaign
1. discover - preliminary orbit determination
2. transponder - measure orbit accurately
3. if keyhole - gravity tractor tow
4. if primary deflection - kinetic impactor or nuclear
5. transponder - measure again to asses
6. if keyhole - gravity tractor tow
B612 Foundation [http://www.b612foundation.org/index.html]
breakfast with professor from Alberta [Selma Guigard] working on a better method for stripping the carbon from the tar sands. the tailings ponds up there are very toxic and currently the Canadian government is not really pushing them to do anything about it. it is in native lands way up away from everyone..... recently 500 birds died when they landed on the ponds. finally a bit of attention on the time-bomb problem that is looming.
none of the major oil companies are interested in her research. they are really happy with the way it is now.
go to google earth [synergy-eng.com/images_industries_served/ kmz_files/Syncrude_Alberta_Tar_Sands.kmz - 1k]
Christopher Riley [http://www.chris-riley.com/biography.html]
presented his movie - 'in the shadow of the moon' [http://www.intheshadowofthemoon.com/]
talked about how he made the film.
great!
excited to be here. invited by Nature, O'Reily and Google to come share a couple of days with a bunch of really smart scientists. some familiar faces. but lots of new ones. the campus is amazing. really amazing. all the bunk is true! food great. rooms great. done well and not fancy. you have to pay for junk food. good food is free.
however, they really need to tune their building systems. It is FREEZING!
thomas allwood [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kirkwood]
research professor of aging.
there is a straight line increase in most of the world for the population getting older. there are many factors which impact the length of longevity, but stress and food are two of the most important.
the current oldest person is 114. it seems that there.
damage accumulates with age. the point of conception is really the only moment when the cellular structure is more or less impact.
retirement is usually really bad for your life. the engagement post retirement is important to keep alive.
accumulation of mental capital is an interesting issue.
Gavin Schmidt [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Schmidt]
presented models found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelE/
the models' processes are tuned and tested against historical data. we know the forcing functions that can be put into the models. the models are valid up to a continental scale. these were origially weather forecasting models. the focus here is on radiation in a single column. thus, the focus on clouds. ahhh but the energy will go into the oceans. and then into the sea ice....... in order to make the models better we need to remake the models to include Aerosols of ALL kinds. there are natural as well as anthropogenic. these have very complicated properties. sulfates are white and reflect many others are black and absorb energy. thus, there is a complexity that is simply not accountable now.
some of the physics in the models are theoretical and this is a constraint. really interesting talk.
essentially we are really stuffed.
Jane McGonigal [http://www.avantgame.com/bio.htm]
'the future of mass collaboration'
there is alot of untapped cognitive power amoungst the game designers. we need to harness our cognitive surplus [read Clay Shirky at http://www.shirky.com/]. we should be doing more Future Forecasting Games.
100 million mental hours to build Wikipedia to date. this is the same amount of time as
5 days of World of Warcraft or
4 episodes of American Idol or 1 season of American Idol votes.
we will increasingly operate within an economy of engagement. this is resulting in some more exrerme scale collaboration. especially if we think of the future. she is at the Institute of the Future now. they look back 2x as far into the past as they look forward. she then went on to talk about the invention of dice games. she told of an origin to help a population to overcome hunger thru distraction. she wants to use games to change society.
massively multiplayer collaboration is THE WAY to solve the world.
gamers will 'grind' - which is the repetition of tasks to gain talents or points
gamers are already totally steeped in knowledge sharing....ie WoWWiki
gamers are really good at noticing anomalies
gamers are really good a pattern recognition
gamers are really good at mapping problem spaces
she referenced http://www.gwap.com/gwap/
she also referenced Chore Wars [http://www.chorewars.com/]
and she referenced a folding game [http://fold.it/portal/]
there are a few big obstacles to making serious games.....
one is that convincing the really good games designers that real world goal games won't wrech their games fun and convincing scientists that game designers and gamers wont trivialize or stupidify their real research and goals.
things that are not challenges are making fun games and convincing gamers to 'play'.
This is a future forecasting game...........Superstructgame.org. what will our tools be in 2019??????
quote from
Box, G.E.P., Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building, in Robustness in Statistics, R.L. Launer and G.N. Wilkinson, Editors. 1979, Academic Press: New York.
had a very interesting lunch onversation with Brady Forrest, who does many things, but one is to organize the eTech conference [http://en.oreilly.com/et2009/public/content/home] which will be in March. It sounds really interesting. The areas of interest can be found here http://en.oreilly.com/et2009/public/cfp/37.
excerpted here:
City Tech: Our cities are growing, getting bigger faster than ever before. People are rushing to them in search of economic and social opportunity—jobs, urban living, and access to culture. How can technology help us create livable, prosperous, sustainable cities? What should mass transit look like? How can we infuse urban infrastructure with sustainability? How are cities using citizens’ data to become smarter? What can economics tell us about the way urban populations will change and behave?
Jason Clay - WWF [http://www.worldwildlife.org/who/experts/item1051.html]
Cargill handles more commodities than anyone else in the world.
data management by companies over the next decade will increase by a factor of seven. how can we bundle 'google maps' with deforestation with
0.7% of global food production is certified organic.
CocaCola purchased 8% of the worlds sugar.
"we want to sell carbon and sugar bundles"
my session was well attended. interesting conversation.
Brian Cox
Carl Dietrich - from the plane
Saul Griffith - http://www.saulgriffith.com/
Neil Stephenson
getting airbone uses more energy than flying. planes are really already very optimized. there are some thermodynamic laws at work which dictate that a long-distance flying 'machine' will burn about 40% of its bodyweight.
efficiency vs conservation
no matter what, if you take a look at a quick calculation, land based travel will always be more efficient with frictionless wheels [steel on steel] than air travel. in air you have to push air down that is equivalent of the weight of the plane in addition to the forward air column.
at what price speed - an article by [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_von_Kármán] to look up and READ
My "Trip Report" ( http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080804_TripReport.pdf
The "Report" includes discussion of 4th generation (fast reactor) nuclear power, boron-powered and hydrogen-powered cars, and the role of the sun in global temperature change.
Apologies for such a long post.
Although several people in Nevada have told me that Governor Gibbons is hopelessly in the hip-pocket of the coal industry, I have sent a second letter to him
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080804_Gibbons2.pdf.
Recommendations of a committee that he appointed appear to have been written by the coal/utility lobby with just a splash of deceitful greenwash. My hope is that he will recognize this and reject the course that they recommend -- thus the aim is to get him to think about the legacy he will leave. Even Scrooge reformed eventually (o.k., that was a fiction novel) -- anyhow we have to try.
Jim
Some recent posts (all in PDF) to the mailing list included:
- July 3, 2008: Dear Prime Minister Fukuda: A letter to the leader of Japan before the G8 meeting
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080703_DearPrimeMinisterFukuda.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TippingPointsNear_20080623.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080604_TaxAndDividend.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080529_DearGovernorGreenwash.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080528_KaineAndPawlenty.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080414_GovernorGibbons.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080410_YankeeTicketPrices.pdf
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20080401_DearPrimeMinisterRudd.pdf
- July 2008: *Climate Threat to the Planet: Implications for Energy Policy*
Slides for presentation given July 4 at United Nations University in Tokyo, available in PDF and Powerpoint.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/Tokyo_20080704.pdf
